How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Daejeon Hana Citizen to win 40%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks very even. Both teams are close on the numbers, with Daejeon Hana Citizen at about 1.5 goals and Ulsan HD FC at about 1.3. There is almost nothing separating them, so the match could be tight, but the slight edge in the figures suggests Daejeon may have a little more firepower.
Daejeon have come into this fixture on the back of two straight wins. In their last three league outings they have won two and lost one, showing they can pick up points quickly. Ulsan’s recent form isn’t listed, so we can only rely on the numbers that put Daejeon a touch ahead.
We pick Daejeon Hana Citizen to win. The numbers give them a 41% chance of coming out on top and the price of 2.30 matches our view of the game. With a small edge in the goal figures, backing Daejeon looks the cleaner play rather than looking for a higher price elsewhere.
The pick could go wrong if the match turns into a low-scoring affair or if Ulsan manage to keep a clean sheet. A single goal for either side would swing the result, so the outcome is not set in stone. We still feel fairly confident, but we know the margin is thin.
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