How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Daejeon Hana Citizen to win 39%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even on paper, but the numbers give Daejeon Hana Citizen a slight edge. Both teams are expected to score just over a goal each, so we can expect a low-scoring affair. Jeju SK are playing at home, yet the goal expectations are close, suggesting the match could be tight rather than open.
Recent results tell a clear story. Jeju SK have failed to win in their last three league games, managing only one draw and two defeats. Daejeon Hana Citizen, on the other hand, come in on three consecutive victories and have not dropped any points in the same span. Their recent form points to a team that is confident and finishing strongly, while Jeju SK look to be struggling.
We back Daejeon Hana Citizen to win. The price of 2.15 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, but we still think they are the better pick. Our own chance of this result is about 40 %. The numbers and the recent run of three wins for Daejeon make the outright win the simplest and most sensible choice.
For this pick to go wrong, Jeju SK would need to turn their recent poor run around and pick up a win at home, or the match could end in a draw. If either of those happens, our view would be proved wrong. We still feel fairly confident in Daejeon’s chances, but we recognise the risk is real.
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