What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Tobol Kostanay and 1.5 from FC Astana, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FC Astana or Draw. This covers FC Astana or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓FC Astana have won one of their last five.
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