How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 8. Both teams scored. We made Kuwait SC to win 84%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Al-Tadhamon and 3.1 from Kuwait SC, so Kuwait SC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Al-Tadhamon come into this on five straight defeats. Kuwait SC come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Kuwait SC to win. Kuwait SC shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-3.2), and we make them about 85% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 84 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.08, which works out at about 93 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Kuwait SC have won five of the last five meetings.
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