Auda v FK Jelgava prediction

What to expect

Auda host FK Jelgava at home in the Latvia Virsliga on 1 November 2026. Auda sit third out of ten with 67 points and a +22 goal difference, comfortably in the European spots. Jelgava are down in seventh with 32 points and a –23 goal difference, three places above the relegation zone. The gap between them is 35 points, so the match is not a title decider but a chance for Auda to keep pressure on the leaders and for Jelgava to try to climb out of the lower half. Both teams have a lot to play for in the table, but on paper Auda are the stronger side.

Auda have been solid in their last eight games, winning four, drawing three and losing just one. Their recent results are a 4-1 away win over Ogre United, a 2-1 loss away to BFC Daugavpils, a 3-2 away win over FK Liepāja, a 1-1 home draw with RFS, a 1-0 home win over Ogre United and a 2-2 away draw with Riga FC. In those eight matches they have scored 14 goals and let in nine, keeping two clean sheets. At home they have not been beaten in their last four games, with two wins and two draws. Four of the eight games featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in six of them.

Jelgava have struggled, losing five of their last eight games and winning only two. Their latest results are a 1-0 home loss to BFC Daugavpils, a 3-0 away loss to FK Liepāja, a 4-2 away loss to RFS, a 1-0 home loss to Riga FC, a 0-0 away draw with Grobiņa and a 1-0 home loss to SK Super Nova. In this run they have scored nine and conceded 13, with just one clean sheet and they have failed to score in five matches. On the road they have a mixed record of two wins, one draw and two defeats in the last five away games. Their four-game losing streak comes into this fixture.

When the two clubs meet, Auda have the edge. In the last five meetings Auda have won three, drawn two and never lost, with an average of 2.4 goals per game. The most recent encounter on 9 August 2026 ended 1-0 to Auda. Given the recent form and the head-to-head record, this match is likely to be a low-scoring affair with Auda pressing for the win and Jelgava struggling to find the net.

We pick Auda to win. The numbers give Auda an expected 1.8 goals to Jelgava’s 0.7, and they have an 84 % chance to score at least once. Our own view puts the chance of a Auda victory at about 64 %. The price of 1.50 matches our reading of the game, so it looks like a sensible bet. For us to be wrong, Jelgava would need to break their recent scoring drought and keep a clean sheet while Auda fail to find a goal, which seems unlikely given the current trends.