How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Drogheda and 1.4 from Dundalk, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Dundalk come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.4-1.4) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 74%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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