What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Shamrock Rovers and 0.7 from Sligo Rovers, so Shamrock Rovers come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sligo Rovers come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Shamrock Rovers to win. Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.7), and we make them about 76% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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