What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Necaxa and 1.7 from Cruz Azul, so Cruz Azul come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Necaxa come into this on two straight defeats. Cruz Azul come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.7), and we make both teams to score about 59%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A clean sheet at either end undoes it, and one side shutting up shop is always on the cards. The price is shorter than our own read of about 59%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
