How it turned out
The game finished with 4 goals. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Necaxa come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 3.1 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. At around 70% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.