How it turned out
The game finished with 4 goals. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Necaxa come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 3.1 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Toluca have won two of their last five.
✓Necaxa have won two of their last five.
✓Five of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
22 Feb 2026Necaxa 0 - 3 Toluca
13 Jul 2025Toluca 3 - 1 Necaxa
8 Mar 2025Toluca 5 - 2 Necaxa
28 Oct 2024Necaxa 1 - 3 Toluca
10 Feb 2024Necaxa 3 - 3 Toluca
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