What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Angers and 1.7 from Rennes, so Rennes come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Rennes to win. Rennes shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.7), and we make them about 55% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Angers only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 55% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
