What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Nice and 2.1 from Paris SG, so Paris SG come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Nice come into this on two straight wins. Paris SG come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Paris SG to win. Paris SG shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-2.1), and we make them about 65% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Paris SG have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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