How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Paris SG to win 65%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Paris SG and 1.2 from Monaco, so Paris SG come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Paris SG come into this on two straight draws. Monaco come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Paris SG to win. Paris SG are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-1.2), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Monaco have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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