What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Montpellier and 0.8 from Pau FC, so Montpellier come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Montpellier to win. Montpellier are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.8), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Montpellier have won two of their last five.
✓Pau FC have won one of their last five.
Recent meetings
20 Mar 2026Pau FC 0 - 0 Montpellier
6 Dec 2025Montpellier 0 - 1 Pau FC
