How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made FK Kauno Žalgiris or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
FK Kauno Žalgiris host Žalgiris Vilnius at home in the Lithuania A Lyga on 26 October 2026. Kauno sit top of the nine-team table with 54 points from 29 games, a +37 goal difference and a place in the European spots. Vilnius are right behind, second with 50 points from 30 games, a +14 goal difference and four points back. The two clubs are only one place apart, so the match could decide who leads the league at the halfway stage. Both teams are already in the European places, but the top spot is at stake.
Kauno’s recent form has been mixed. In their last seven games they have won four, lost three and have not drawn any. The most recent result was a 4-1 defeat at home to Brann. Before that they edged Sūduva 1-0 away, then suffered a 4-0 loss to Brighton & Hove Albion away. They bounced back with a 2-0 win over FA Šiauliai away, a 3-2 loss to Vilnius away and a 1-0 victory over FK Panevėžys away. In those seven matches Kauno have scored 12 goals and let in 12, kept three clean sheets and failed to find the net once. Four of the games featured three or more goals, and in three of them both sides scored.
Vilnius arrive on the back of two straight wins. Their last five fixtures contain three wins, one draw and one loss. Most recently they thumped Hegelmann 4-1 at home, then demolished Sūduva 4-0 at home. Their only defeat in the run was a 3-0 loss away to FK TransINVEST. Earlier they beat Kauno 3-2 at home and drew 0-0 away at Sūduva. Over those five games Vilnius have scored 11 and conceded six, kept two clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Four of the matches produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of them. They have had eight days to rest before travelling to Kauno.
The two clubs have already met this season, with Vilnius winning 3-2 at home. That game showed both teams can score and that goals are likely when they meet. Given Kauno’s recent home loss and Vilnius’s recent high-scoring wins, we expect another open encounter with chances for both sides. The goal expectations of 1.5 for Kauno and 1.1 for Vilnius add up to about 2.6 goals, which fits the pattern of recent meetings where three-goal games have been common.
Our pick is FK Kauno Žalgiris or a draw at odds of 1.22. The price is shorter than our own reading, so it gives us a safety net while still backing the stronger side. Kauno have an 80 % chance of scoring and a 49 % chance of scoring twice, while Vilnius have a 66 % chance of finding the net. The combined chance of our pick succeeding is about 76 %. For it to go wrong, Kauno would need to lose by more than one goal or fail to score at all, and Vilnius would have to win outright. If the game stays tight or ends level, the bet should pay off.
Recent results
Žalgiris Vilnius have won three of the last five meetings.
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