What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Hegelmann and 1.3 from Sūduva, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sūduva to win. Sūduva shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 43% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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