How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Gateshead host Altrincham at the National League on 29 September. Gateshead sit near the bottom after eight games without a win, while Altrincham sit eighth with 18 points from ten matches. The table is tight around them – Kidderminster sit one place above with the same points, and Worthing are just a point behind. Both clubs played three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor, but the stakes are clear: Gateshead need a point to start climbing out of the relegation zone, and Altrincham look to keep the pressure on the teams above them.
Gateshead have been in a deep slump. In their last eight outings they have lost seven and drawn one, with the most recent loss a 4-0 defeat at Wealdstone. Before that they went down 6-1 to Southend at home, then 1-0 away to Kidderminster, 4-0 at Forest Green, drew 1-1 with Solihull at home and lost 2-1 at Harrogate. That string includes four games at home, all defeats except the draw, and they have managed only three goals while conceding 22. They have failed to find the net in five of those eight matches, though three games have seen both sides score.
Altrincham arrive on a completely different run. In their last eight games they have won seven and lost only once, the loss a 5-1 reverse at Woking. The other results are all victories: 3-0 over Hornchurch at home, 2-1 away at Fylde twice, 2-1 at home against Hartlepool, and 2-1 at home over Eastleigh. Their four most recent road games contain three wins and one loss. They have scored 16 goals and let in 11, keeping a clean sheet just once. Seven of those eight matches have produced three or more goals, and both sides have scored in seven of them, showing a strong tendency for open games.
When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been lively. In the last five meetings Altrincham have won three, Gateshead one and there has been one draw. The fixtures have averaged 3.2 goals, and the most recent encounter on 25 April saw Altrincham win 3-1 at Gateshead. Given the recent form of both sides – Gateshead struggling to score and Altrincham scoring regularly – we expect another match with chances at both ends rather than a one-sided shut-out.
Our pick is both teams to score. Gateshead have a 67 % chance of finding the net and Altrincham an 81 % chance, while both sides have scored in seven of Altrincham’s recent games and three of Gateshead’s. The price of 1.60 is shorter than our reading, so it looks attractive. For the pick to fail, Gateshead would need to be shut out or Altrincham would have to keep a clean sheet, both of which feel unlikely given the goal averages and the open nature of their recent matches. We give the bet a 57 % chance of hitting.
Recent results
Altrincham have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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