Gateshead v Worthing: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Worthing to win 63%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Gateshead and 2.1 from Worthing, so Worthing come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Gateshead come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Worthing to win. Worthing shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-2.1), and we make them about 64% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.