How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Halifax or Draw 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Halifax host Boston United at the National League ground on 29 September 2026. Halifax sit 14th out of 24 with 13 points from ten games and a +2 goal difference. Boston United are 18th, two places below, with 11 points and a –1 goal difference. The two clubs are close in the table, with Eastleigh just above Halifax and Barrow just below, while Wealdstone sit a spot above Boston United and Carlisle United sit a spot below. Both teams have played their last match three days ago, so the fixture comes after a short turnaround for each side.
Halifax have been decent at home recently. In their last four home games they have won three and drawn one, without a loss. They beat Hornchurch 3-0, beat Hartlepool 1-0 and drew 1-1 with Sutton, then beat Wealdstone 1-0 away and lost 2-1 to Worthing away. In those eight matches they have scored twelve goals and let in seven. They kept three clean sheets and were held scoreless once. Four of the games featured three or more goals and the other four saw both sides find the net.
Boston United have struggled away from home. In their last eight games they have won once, drawn twice and lost five. Their most recent results are a 1-0 loss to Fylde at home, another 1-0 loss to AFC Fylde at home and a 3-1 victory over Forest Green away. Before that they drew 1-1 with Woking at home, lost 3-1 to Wealdstone at home and drew 2-2 with Tamworth away. Over those eight matches they have scored ten and conceded fourteen. They have failed to score in two games and have been involved in five matches with three or more goals, while both sides have scored in six of them.
The two clubs have met four times before, and Halifax have won every encounter. The average scoreline of those meetings is 1.5 goals. The most recent meeting was on 17 January 2026, when Halifax edged Boston United 2-1. Given Halifax’s recent home form and the fact that they have always come out on top in this fixture, we expect a low-scoring game with both sides likely to find the net at least once.
We back Halifax or the draw at 1.35. The price is shorter than our own reading of the game, so it gives us a safety net while still favouring the stronger side. Halifax have a 76 % chance of scoring and a 44 % chance of scoring twice, while Boston United have a 68 % chance of scoring at all and a 33 % chance of scoring twice. The pick looks good because Halifax have been solid at home and have the historical edge. It would go wrong only if Boston United manage to keep a clean sheet and score twice, or if Halifax fail to find the net despite their high scoring probability. Overall, the odds and the form point to Halifax or a draw as the sensible choice.
Recent results
Halifax have won four of the last four meetings.
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