What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Harrogate and 1.5 from Hornchurch, so Harrogate come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Harrogate to score 2 or fewer. This is about Harrogate's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Harrogate have won two of their last five.
✓Hornchurch have won one of their last five.
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