Harrogate v Hornchurch: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Harrogate to score 2 or fewer 74%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.1 goals from Harrogate and 1.3 from Hornchurch, so Harrogate come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Harrogate come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Harrogate to score 2 or fewer. This is about Harrogate's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 73%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.