What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Hartlepool and 1.1 from Eastleigh, so Hartlepool come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hartlepool to win. Hartlepool are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.1), and we make them about 52% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Eastleigh to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 52%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
