How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Hartlepool to score 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Hartlepool host Harrogate at the National League on 29 September 2026. The home side sit 21st of 24 with nine points from ten games and a –7 goal difference, deep in the relegation zone. One point separates them from safety above and from the drop below. Harrogate sit fourth, with nineteen points and a +7 goal difference, comfortably in the European places. One point separates them from the team above and the one below. Both clubs played three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor, but the stakes are clear: Hartlepool need points to climb out of the bottom three, while Harrogate look to keep their push for the top spots alive.
Hartlepool’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight matches they have won only once, losing seven straight, the most recent four defeats coming against Scunthorpe (4-1 away), Worthing (3-1 at home), Altrincham (2-1 away) and Kidderminster (2-0 away). Their lone win was a 1-0 home victory over Woking. They also lost 1-0 to Halifax away. In those eight games they have scored five goals and let in fifteen, keeping just one clean sheet and failing to score in three matches. At home they have one win and two losses in the last three fixtures.
Harrogate have been more balanced but still erratic. In their last eight games they have won four and lost four. Their most recent win was a 4-1 home thrashing of Eastleigh, before a 4-1 away loss to Boreham Wood. They then suffered two 2-1 home defeats to AFC Fylde, followed by a 3-1 home win over Tamworth and a 2-0 away win at Scunthorpe. On the road they have one win and two losses in the last three trips. Across the eight matches they have scored fifteen and conceded fourteen, keeping a single clean sheet. Seven of those games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in seven of them.
The two clubs have met four times before. Hartlepool have won twice, Harrogate once and one game ended in a draw. Those meetings have been high-scoring, averaging 4.2 goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 3-3 draw on 1 January 2023, a game that showed both sides can find the net regularly. Given the goal averages and the open nature of both teams’ recent matches, we expect another lively contest with chances at both ends.
Our pick is Hartlepool to score. The chance they find the net is 74 out of 100 and the price of 1.38 matches our view of the game. Hartlepool have scored in six of their last eight matches and have a 39 out of 100 chance of scoring twice, so a goal is likely even if they lose. The bet would fail if Hartlepool are shut out, which could happen if they struggle to create chances against a Harrogate side that scores in 84 out of 100 games. However, the price looks good and the odds of a Hartlepool goal are high enough for us to back it.
Recent results
Hartlepool have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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