What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Hartlepool and 1.1 from Hornchurch, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hornchurch to score 1 or fewer. This is about Hornchurch's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 68%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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