How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Hartlepool and 1.4 from Tamworth, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Hartlepool come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.4), and we make both teams to score about 60%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Hartlepool have won one of the last four meetings, with three drawn.
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