Hornchurch v Aldershot: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 57%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Hornchurch host Aldershot at the National League ground on 29 September. Hornchurch sit 11th out of 24 with 15 points from ten games and a –4 goal difference. Aldershot are much higher, sitting 5th with 18 points and a +7 goal difference, inside the league’s promotion places. The two clubs are only a few places apart in the table, but the gap in points and form is clear. Both sides are coming off matches three days ago, so the short turnaround adds a physical edge to the contest.

Hornchurch have not been strong in their last eight outings. They have won three, lost five and have not drawn any. The most recent result was a 3-0 defeat away at Altrincham. Before that they beat Scunthorpe 1-0 at home, then lost 1-0 away to Worthing, 3-0 away to Halifax and 1-0 at home to Forest Green. Their only other win in the run was a 3-2 away victory over Boston United. In those eight games Hornchurch have scored six goals and let in fourteen. They kept two clean sheets but failed to find the net in four matches. At home they have been a little better, winning two of their last three home games.

Aldershot’s recent form is far more positive. In their last eight fixtures they have won four, drawn three and lost once. The latest game was a 5-1 home win over Tamworth. Prior to that they fell 1-0 away to Barrow, then drew 1-1 at home with Yeovil. They also beat Solihull 2-1 away, won 1-0 at home against Halifax and drew 1-1 away at Eastleigh. On the road in their last four trips they have one win, two draws and one loss. Across the eight games Aldershot have scored fourteen goals and conceded seven. They kept one clean sheet and were held scoreless only once. Six of those matches saw both sides on the scoresheet, showing a habit of sharing goals.

The two clubs have met before, and those meetings have usually produced goals at both ends. The pattern suggests a game with chances for each side rather than a defensive stalemate. Hornchurch have struggled to score lately, yet they have managed to find the net in half of their recent games. Aldershot, with a higher scoring rate, have been involved in six of the last eight games that featured goals from both teams. The evidence points to an open contest where each side can expect to test the other’s defence.

We pick both teams to score. The chance of both sides finding the net is about 57 out of 100 and the price offered is 1.57, which is shorter than our reading of the game. The pick works if Hornchurch break their recent drought and Aldershot continue to score as they have. It could fail if Hornchurch are shut out again or if Aldershot’s attack is blunted by a tight defensive display. The price looks good for the risk, and we expect at least one goal from each side.