How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Fylde to score 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Southend and 1.3 from Fylde, so Southend come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Fylde to score. This is about Fylde's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 2-2, with no drawn.
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