How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Carlisle (Draw No Bet) 65%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Wealdstone and 2.0 from Carlisle, so Carlisle come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Wealdstone come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Carlisle (Draw No Bet). Carlisle are favoured here (xG 1.3-2.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Carlisle defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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