Larne v Bangor: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Larne to win 81%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Larne host Bangor at their ground on 8 September in a NIFL Premiership clash that could have real consequences for both clubs. Larne sit eighth out of twelve, just four points away from the two spots that guarantee safety. One place above them sits Glentoran, two points clear, while Ballymena United sit just below, level on points. Bangor are tenth, with only one point from their last four games and a goal difference of minus nine, also deep in the relegation zone. One place above them is Ballymena United, three points ahead, and Limavady sit below, a point further back. Both teams are fighting to climb out of the drop zone, and the price of 1.20 for a Larne win matches our own view of the match.

Larne come into this game on the back of two straight victories. Their last eight fixtures, mixing home and away, have produced three wins and five defeats. The most recent wins were at home, a 2-1 triumph over Glentoran followed by a 1-0 win against Gent. Before that they suffered a 2-0 loss away to Dinamo Minsk, a 1-0 defeat away to Olimpija Ljubljana, a 2-1 home loss to FC St. Gallen and a 4-1 home loss to Shamrock Rovers. In those eight games Larne have scored eight goals while conceding fourteen. They have kept only one clean sheet and have been shut out three times. Five of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in four of them. At home in their last five outings they have won three and lost two, showing they can still be dangerous on familiar turf despite the recent run of defeats. The short four-day turnaround from their last match means they will be fresh but also have had little time to rest.

Our pick is Larne to win. The goal expectations we have – about 2.3 for Larne and 0.5 for Bangor – make Larne the clear favourite. We estimate an 81 % chance of success, which aligns closely with the price of 1.20 that is on offer. The price looks good compared with our own reading of the game. For this to go wrong, Bangor would need to find a way to tighten up defensively and grab a rare goal, while Larne would have to miss both of their expected chances and perhaps concede early. If either of those happens the result could be different, but the balance of evidence points strongly to a home win for Larne.