How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Linfield to win 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Linfield and 0.7 from Dungannon Swifts, so Linfield come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Linfield come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Linfield to win. Linfield are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.7), and we make them about 73% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Linfield have won five of the last five meetings.
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