Cerro Porteño v Sportivo Ameliano prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.5 goals from Cerro Porteño and 0.8 from Sportivo Ameliano, so Cerro Porteño come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Sportivo Ameliano come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Cerro Porteño or Draw. This covers Cerro Porteño or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.