What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Nacional and 1.1 from Cerro Porteño, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Cerro Porteño or Draw. This covers Cerro Porteño or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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