What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Nacional and 1.1 from Recoleta, so Nacional come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Nacional to win. Nacional are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.1), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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