Universitario de Deportes v ADC Juan Pablo II prediction

What to expect

We expect about 2.5 goals from Universitario de Deportes and 0.7 from ADC Juan Pablo II, so Universitario de Deportes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Universitario de Deportes to win. Universitario de Deportes are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.7), and we make them about 76% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.