What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Universitario de Deportes and 0.5 from Club Deportivo Moquegua, so Universitario de Deportes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Universitario de Deportes to win. Universitario de Deportes are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.4), and we make them about 81% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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