How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Man City to win 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from Man City and 0.7 from Coventry, so Man City come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Man City come into this on two straight wins. Coventry come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Man City to win. Man City are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.7), and we make them about 83% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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