How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Al-Gharafa or Draw 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al-Gharafa host Al-Ahli in the Qatar Stars League on 22 October. The home side sit 10th of 12 with five points from six games and a –5 goal difference. One place above them sits Lusail SC, just a point clear, while Qatar SC sit two points behind. Al-Ahli are a little higher in the table, seventh with seven points and a –2 goal difference. They sit one point behind Al-Wakrah and level with Al-Shahaniya below. Both clubs are fighting to climb out of the lower half, so a win or even a point could tighten the race around the relegation zone.
Al-Gharafa have struggled to find form in their last six outings. They began with a 0-0 draw against Al-Rayyan at home, then fell 2-1 to Esteghlal on their own turf. An away loss to Al-Wakrah followed, 3-2, before they bounced back with a 4-2 home victory over Al Mesaimeer. The run continued with a 2-1 defeat away at Al Hilal and a 0-0 stalemate against Lusail SC at home. In those six games they have scored eight and let in nine, kept two clean sheets and failed to find the net twice. Their last three matches have all ended without a win, and they are coming into this game after only four days of rest.
Al-Ahli’s recent form is equally uneven. Their most recent match was a 3-0 loss at home to Al-Wakrah. Before that they enjoyed a 5-0 home win over Al-Sailiya, then drew 1-1 away at Al Markhiya. The next three results were narrow defeats: 1-0 at home to Al-Shahaniya, 1-0 away to Tusker FC and 3-0 away to Al-Rayyan. In six games they have scored six and conceded nine, kept one clean sheet and have been shut out four times. Their last three road trips have produced one draw and two defeats. They played six days ago, giving them a slightly longer break than their opponents.
When the two sides meet, the numbers suggest an open contest with chances for both teams. Al-Gharafa have an 82 % chance of scoring at least once and a 53 % chance of finding the net twice or more. Al-Ahli are not far behind, with a 76 % chance of scoring and a 42 % chance of a double. The recent fixtures of both clubs show several games with three or more goals, and both sides have often scored in those encounters. This points to a match that could see goals from either end, rather than a defensive slog.
Our pick is Al-Gharafa or a draw at 1.30. The price is shorter than what we feel the game warrants, so the safety net of the draw makes sense. We see a 68 % chance that this outcome will hold. For the bet to go wrong, Al-Ahli would need to win outright, which would require them to improve sharply after a recent string of defeats and keep a clean sheet while scoring at least twice. If the game stays tight and both teams manage to score, the combined result of a draw or an Al-Gharafa win should see the price hit.
Recent results
Al-Ahli have won three of the last five meetings.
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