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Football/Russian Premier League/Orenburg v CSKA Moscow
Russian Premier League · Stadion Gazovik

Orenburg v CSKA Moscow prediction

Orenburg crestOrenburg6th of 16 · 16 ptsLWLWL
v
CSKA Moscow crestCSKA Moscow3rd of 16 · 25 ptsWWLWW
This match has been played — the final score is still to come.

What to expect

Orenburg host CS Kazan on a chilly November evening in the Russian Premier League. Orenburg sit sixth in the 16-team table with 16 points from 12 games and a modest +2 goal difference. They are just one point ahead of Krylya Sovetov Samara and seven points behind Spartak Moscow. CS Kazan sit third with 25 points, a +9 goal difference, two points behind leaders Zenit and two points ahead of FC Krasnodar. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, but the gap between third and sixth means CS Kazan have more to lose if they slip.

Orenburg’s recent form has been a roller-coaster. In their last eight matches they have won four and lost four, with no draws. The most recent result was a 3-0 defeat at home to Zenit. Before that they beat FK Rostov 2-1 at home, then suffered a 3-0 loss away to Krasnodar. A 1-0 home win over Krylya Sovetov followed, then a 3-1 away loss to Sochi and a 1-0 away victory over Rostov. In those eight games Orenburg have scored seven goals and let in twelve. They kept two clean sheets but failed to find the net in three matches. Half of the games featured three or more goals and in three of them both sides scored.

CS Kazan arrive on the back of two straight victories and look much sharper. In their last eight outings they have won six and lost two, with no draws. Their most recent win was a 3-1 home triumph over Lokomotiv Moscow, preceded by a 2-0 home success against Spartak. Earlier they lost 3-1 away to Dinamo Moscow, then enjoyed a 4-0 home demolition of FC Rostov, a 3-0 home win over Rodina and a 3-1 home victory against Arsenal Tula. Across those eight games CS Kazan have scored 20 and conceded nine, keeping three clean sheets. Seven of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. The team played just three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

The two clubs have met five times recently. CS Kazan have won three of those meetings, with the other two ending in draws. The average scoreline has been 2.4 goals per game. The latest encounter, on 29 November 2025, saw CS Kazan win 2-0 at Orenburg. Given the history of low-scoring games for Orenburg and the recent attacking output of CS Kazan, we expect a tight contest with few chances for the home side to find the net more than once.

Our pick is Orenburg to score one goal or fewer. The numbers suggest Orenburg will average about one goal on the day and the chance of staying under two is high. The price of 1.53 is longer than our own reading, which makes it attractive. For the bet to fail Orenburg would need to score at least two goals, which would require a sudden surge in their attacking play that has not been seen in their recent eight-game run. We feel the odds are generous and the likelihood of Orenburg staying under two is about 76 out of 100.

What the numbers say
✓Orenburg have won two of their last five.
✓CSKA Moscow have won four of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.

Recent results

29 Nov 2025CSKA Moscow 2 - 0 Orenburg
21 Jul 2025Orenburg 0 - 0 CSKA Moscow
12 Apr 2025Orenburg 0 - 2 CSKA Moscow
4 Aug 2024CSKA Moscow 5 - 1 Orenburg
2 Mar 2024CSKA Moscow 1 - 1 Orenburg

CSKA Moscow have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.

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