What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Al Ahli and 1.6 from Al Nassr, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Nassr or Draw. This covers Al Nassr or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Al Ahli have won two of their last four.
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