How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Al Ettifaq to win 49%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Al Ettifaq host Al-Faisaly at home in the Saudi Pro League on 8 September. Al-Faisaly sit 17th out of 18, with three points from six games and a –6 goal difference. They are in the relegation zone, just one place above the bottom and two points clear of Abha below them. Al-Ettifaq sit higher in the table, though the exact position is not given, and the numbers suggest they are the stronger side. Both clubs will be looking to improve their standing, but the stakes are heavier for Al-Faisaly, who must avoid slipping further into the drop zone.
Al-Ettifaq have been in decent form lately. In their last three outings they beat Al-Hilal 2-1, then drew 1-1 with Al-Ittihad, and followed that with a 3-0 win over Al-Riyadh. Those results give them six points from a possible nine and a total of six goals scored while keeping just one against. The run shows they can both score and defend well, and it adds confidence to their home game.
Al-Faisaly have struggled to find points. Their recent fixtures include a 3-0 loss to Celtic, a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Kilmarnock, and a 2-2 draw with Al-Qadsiah. The loss to Celtic was heavy, with no reply, and the Kilmarnock game saw them concede four while only managing one. The most recent 2-2 draw gave them a rare point, but it also highlighted defensive frailties as they allowed two goals at home. Overall they have one point from three games and a goal difference of –6.
When the two sides have met before, the games have been tight, with both teams managing to score. The pattern suggests a contest where the home side can use its advantage to press for the win, while the visitors will look to stay in the game and try to pick up a point. Given Al-Ettifaq’s recent scoring record and Al-Faisaly’s defensive leaks, we expect a low-scoring match that still favors the hosts.
We back Al-Ettifaq to win. The numbers give them about 1.5 goals to Al-Faisaly’s 0.9, and we see roughly a 50 % chance of a victory. The price of 1.98 matches our view of the game. It looks like the cleaner play compared with chasing higher odds elsewhere. For our pick to go wrong, Al-Faisaly would need to tighten up at the back and score early, turning the match into a draw or a narrow win for the visitors. If that does not happen, Al-Ettifaq should take the three points.
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