What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Al Ettifaq and 1.0 from Al-Faisaly, so Al Ettifaq come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al Ettifaq to win. Al Ettifaq are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.0), and we make them about 54% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Al-Faisaly have not won any of their last three.
