How it turned out
We projected about 4.7 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Al Nassr to win 91%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 4.0 goals from Al Nassr and 0.7 from Abha, so Al Nassr come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Nassr to win. Al Nassr are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 4.0-0.7), and we make them about 93% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 91 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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