What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Falkirk and 1.6 from Hearts, so Hearts come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hearts (Draw No Bet). Hearts are favoured here (xG 1.1-1.6), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Hearts defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Falkirk win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 68%: a lean, not a lock.
