What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Falkirk and 1.6 from Hearts, so Hearts come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.7 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.6), keeping it under more often than not (about 70%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Falkirk have not won any of their last five.
✓Hearts have won two of their last five.
✓Two of the last four meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in no of the last four meetings.
Recent meetings
13 May 2026Hearts 3 - 0 Falkirk
21 Feb 2026Hearts 1 - 0 Falkirk
13 Dec 2025Falkirk 0 - 2 Hearts
27 Sept 2025Hearts 3 - 0 Falkirk
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