How it turned out
The game finished with 0 goals. We made Motherwell to win 62%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Motherwell to win. Motherwell are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.9), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.86, which works out at about 54 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Motherwell have won one of their last four.
One thing to watch
Falkirk only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 62%: a lean, not a lock.
