How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made St Mirren to score 1 or fewer 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Motherwell and 1.0 from St Mirren, so Motherwell come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: St Mirren to score 1 or fewer. This is about St Mirren's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Motherwell have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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