How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 4.5 goals 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Rangers and 0.8 from St Mirren, so Rangers come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Rangers come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.1 goals (xG 2.2-0.9), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 82%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Rangers have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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