What to expect
We expect about 2.8 goals from FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.6 from FK Radnik Surdulica, so FK Crvena Zvezda come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
FK Crvena Zvezda come into this on four straight wins. FK Radnik Surdulica come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FK Crvena Zvezda to win. FK Crvena Zvezda are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.8-0.6), and we make them about 86% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 84 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.11, which works out at about 90 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
FK Crvena Zvezda have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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