How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made FK Crvena Zvezda to win 87%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Mačva Šabac and 2.7 from FK Crvena Zvezda, so FK Crvena Zvezda come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FK Crvena Zvezda to win. FK Crvena Zvezda shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-2.7), and we make them about 89% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 87 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
FK Crvena Zvezda have won five of the last five meetings.
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