How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Avellino and 0.9 from SS Arezzo, so Avellino come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-0.9), and we make both teams to score about 54%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.90, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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