How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Juve Stabia to win 33%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Juve Stabia and 1.0 from Pisa, so Juve Stabia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Juve Stabia to win. Juve Stabia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 35% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 33 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.90, which works out at about 34 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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