How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Draw 32%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Richards Bay and 0.9 from AmaZulu FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Draw. There is very little between these two (xG 0.9-1.0), and a share of the spoils is a real possibility at around 34%. When sides are this evenly matched, the draw is worth respecting.
We put the chance of that landing at about 32 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.75, which works out at about 36 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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