Besiktas v Erzurumspor: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Besiktas to win 76%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Besiktas host Erzurumspor at home in the Süper Lig on 11 September 2026. Besiktas sit higher in the table and are looking to climb even higher, while Erzurumspor are fighting to stay clear of the drop zone. The two clubs are far apart in the goal expectations we have – about 2.6 for Besiktas and 0.7 for Erzurumspor – so the match is expected to be open with chances at both ends. A win for Besiktas would tighten their grip on the upper half of the table, whereas a loss would be a setback for Erzurumspor’s survival hopes.

Besiktas have played eight games in their recent run, three wins, two draws and three defeats. Their most recent result was a 6-2 victory over Corum at home, showing they can score freely. Before that they fell 1-0 to Alanyaspor away, then edged Eyupspor 1-0 at home. A 2-2 draw with Rizespor away followed, and they were beaten 2-1 by Trabzonspor at home. Their run started with a 2-0 away win over Gaziantep. In those eight games Besiktas have found the net 13 times and let in nine. They kept three clean sheets and failed to score in two matches. Four of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of the fixtures. At home in the last four outings they have won two, drawn one and lost one.

Erzurumspor have not won any of their last three matches, recording one draw and two defeats. Their latest game was a 1-1 draw with Genclerbirligi away, a match where they finally got on the scoresheet after a barren spell. Prior to that they were thrashed 4-0 by Galatasaray at home and suffered a 3-0 loss to Amedspor away. Over these three games Erzurumspor have scored just one goal while conceding eight. They failed to find the net in two of the three matches. Two of the fixtures saw three or more goals, and both sides scored in one of those. Their last appearance was 14 days ago, giving them a slightly longer break than Besiktas.

We back Besiktas to win. The price on offer is 1.24, which is shorter than we feel the game deserves. Our reading gives Besiktas about a 76 % chance of coming out on top. The home side’s recent scoring burst and the away side’s difficulty in finding the net point to a comfortable win for Besiktas. The pick would go wrong if Erzurumspor manage to tighten up defensively and snatch a low-scoring draw, or if Besiktas fail to convert any of the chances they are likely to create. Otherwise, the odds look good for a straightforward victory.