What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Goztep and 0.8 from Genclerbirligi, so Goztep come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Goztep (Draw No Bet). Goztep are favoured here (xG 1.5-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Goztep defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Genclerbirligi win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 73% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
